Where To, Prices & Volumes, 2010 Wellington?

So heres my stab at it.


Firstly this is done without any knowledge on The Listeners current position on the market.

This is an important barometer for me, as I have found that publication to be very reliably & consistantly wrong on property for 15 years. And in a timely fashion too.

When The Listener says ( and they do about twice a year) "real estate is in a terrible state, and its ruining the country, and prices are about to go through the floor, and and and the collapse will take all the greedy people who own houses to hell"... then buy buy buy!

In their defense their editorial sentiment is generally negitive towards property, so the 7% average annual increase in value over the last 100 years works against them I guess. Can anyone summarize their current opinion, to take it into account in predicting the next 12 months?


Rest of the media, also a good indication of which way not to bet... but they are confused. "You need a house, but dont buy one, maybe" , seems the overall flavour.


Tony Alexander, BNZ...far sharper than media.. says nationally up 5 to 10 % next year.


Buyers...gone for christmas, no one to ask.


Listings...more, but selling. Except over $1 million...there are a swarm there, & not enough buyers.


Investment/first home...yields poor unless you compare them to running a small business or putting it in the bank. Or pretty well anything.
first homes
Prices fairly fierce for what you get...but there is nothing else...


Rumours..bloodletting by government to reduce spending blowout next year especially in Wellington.
Loss Atributing Qualifying Companies's to lose some benefits?


US property market still weak.





So... me, Ill say volumes next year 680 to 800 sales a month...ie steady. Prices? Wellington overall...up 6% year on year. First homes & over $ 1 million...not so strong... up 3%.





And living in a clean, clever, compact Capital, safe and secure from all the stress the rest of the "civilized" world put up with every day?.............. PRICELESS!





Have a wonderful Festive Season.


Cheers


Colin