Upmarket, 50 m2 Apartments snapped up off plans
First succesful selldown since times got tough! Yes folks, its over!
My definition of a recession in real estate: You cant sell new developments off the plans.
16 of 32 lovely, well designed & located apartments have been bought in the last month. Sold by developers to mates, contacts, & past clients, with no marketing.
they are very cool. look like good value & ( sigh) groovy design. Very yummy. Some of the best fun I have had is selling cool apartments!
watch this spot for more details once I am allowed.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Predicting Future Price Movements in The Residential Market
OK, I dont know why I never thought of this obvious relationship!
Here is the graph that got me excited.
thanks again to tony Alexander at BNZ...a good thing to subscribe to ( see below for link)
Note, Ive annotated graph, its not the easiest correlation to spot quickly.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
BNZ predictions...Graph Shows Future House Price Movement!
Heres an excerpt fron the latest great BNZ report, produced by the charming Tony Alexander. Tony is a fun & generous speaker I have heard on occasion over the years. Worth subscribing at http://www.bnz.co.nz
It includes a really useful graph I have never seen before. It looks really useful, once you extrapolate it!
“ Housing Market Rising As Expected
The highlight of the week as far as housing activity goes was the monthly REINZ report released on Monday. It showed that in rough seasonally adjusted terms sales of dwellings fell by about 5% in August butat 5,878 were ahead a still strong 39% from a year ago. One can easily put the small easing in sales activitydown to the frequently reported shortages of listings – and because listings are in short supply it is no surprise that the average number of days taken to sell a dwelling fell even further in August.
50000
This measure now sits at 34 days from 37 in July and 55 a year earlier. This puts the speed of sales back
practically at the 33 of August 2007 and the August result is 3.7 days faster than average for the month. In July the days to sell measure was 2.8 days below average while June was above average by 0.9 days.
And so, with sales constrained by a vendor shortage, it is no surprise that prices continue to go up. The stratified measure put together by the Reserve Bank shows that on average prices in August were up 1.2% after rising 1.0% in July. Prices have now on average recovered 5.9% from their low point back in January
and sit 2.6% up from levels a year ago and only 6.2% down from the peak reached in November 2007.
Page 7
So where are prices going from here? Simply look at the graph below and the answer is as obvious now as it has been for all but the most biased for some time.”
Tony has here the most cool graph! You have GOT to go look!(Colin)
It shows whats going to happen to house prices!
If you are like me it will take thought to figure what that plunging "price movement" line means...but when you do! Golly Gosh!..... Buy now…in fact you should have bought in January! Go to http://www.bnz.co.nz/binaries/w170909.pdf , page 7, to see!
It includes a really useful graph I have never seen before. It looks really useful, once you extrapolate it!
“ Housing Market Rising As Expected
The highlight of the week as far as housing activity goes was the monthly REINZ report released on Monday. It showed that in rough seasonally adjusted terms sales of dwellings fell by about 5% in August butat 5,878 were ahead a still strong 39% from a year ago. One can easily put the small easing in sales activitydown to the frequently reported shortages of listings – and because listings are in short supply it is no surprise that the average number of days taken to sell a dwelling fell even further in August.
50000
This measure now sits at 34 days from 37 in July and 55 a year earlier. This puts the speed of sales back
practically at the 33 of August 2007 and the August result is 3.7 days faster than average for the month. In July the days to sell measure was 2.8 days below average while June was above average by 0.9 days.
And so, with sales constrained by a vendor shortage, it is no surprise that prices continue to go up. The stratified measure put together by the Reserve Bank shows that on average prices in August were up 1.2% after rising 1.0% in July. Prices have now on average recovered 5.9% from their low point back in January
and sit 2.6% up from levels a year ago and only 6.2% down from the peak reached in November 2007.
Page 7
So where are prices going from here? Simply look at the graph below and the answer is as obvious now as it has been for all but the most biased for some time.”
Tony has here the most cool graph! You have GOT to go look!(Colin)
It shows whats going to happen to house prices!
If you are like me it will take thought to figure what that plunging "price movement" line means...but when you do! Golly Gosh!..... Buy now…in fact you should have bought in January! Go to http://www.bnz.co.nz/binaries/w170909.pdf , page 7, to see!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Wise Prime Minister Kills Capital gains Talk
John Key Says This Issue Is Not Going Anywhere.
Did he mutter something about "until hell freezes over?...."
Good job. He agrees with my comments below, from when this was hot 10 days ago.
Now get on with making the rest of the economy more vibrant please.
Did he mutter something about "until hell freezes over?...."
Good job. He agrees with my comments below, from when this was hot 10 days ago.
Now get on with making the rest of the economy more vibrant please.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Capital gain effects...revisited
Capital gains, at Least On Rental Property. Effects?
Now my minds going! Its not simple!
If the tax was on "realized gains"The market would freeze up a lot. In Italy houses have lain idle for literally hundreds of years because the owners cant afford to pay taxes due on sale.
If it is on "unrealized gains". Whew!
I assume it cant be retrospective. But having endured Muldoons retrospective tax change in the Kiwifruit industry, its possible.
So year one, "Unrealized Gains"scenario: Prices fall 20% (see my earlier blog) wiping $36b. Investors lose $24b, & claim $12b in tax losses! Hmmm.
In future after that, when the market rises, (which is always good times) Govt coffers will overflow at a time it dosnt need it, so will spend it like Labour just did for 9 years. When times are bad, investors will get refunds, putting pressure on already empty Govt coffers.
BUT THEN... there will be an equalizing private effect. Investors will have Mr or Ms Taxpersons hand in their pocket during booms, but handing some back in bad times. Countercyclical for investors.
Of course that is a bit like saying they take 3 pints of blood, but give one back.
Now my minds going! Its not simple!
If the tax was on "realized gains"The market would freeze up a lot. In Italy houses have lain idle for literally hundreds of years because the owners cant afford to pay taxes due on sale.
If it is on "unrealized gains". Whew!
I assume it cant be retrospective. But having endured Muldoons retrospective tax change in the Kiwifruit industry, its possible.
So year one, "Unrealized Gains"scenario: Prices fall 20% (see my earlier blog) wiping $36b. Investors lose $24b, & claim $12b in tax losses! Hmmm.
In future after that, when the market rises, (which is always good times) Govt coffers will overflow at a time it dosnt need it, so will spend it like Labour just did for 9 years. When times are bad, investors will get refunds, putting pressure on already empty Govt coffers.
BUT THEN... there will be an equalizing private effect. Investors will have Mr or Ms Taxpersons hand in their pocket during booms, but handing some back in bad times. Countercyclical for investors.
Of course that is a bit like saying they take 3 pints of blood, but give one back.
Houses On the Move! (Prices, not The Houses!)
4th Straight Month of National Median House Prices Up
Median national of $346 750 in Aug just 2% under all time high.
Sales volumes 39% up on Aug 08
17 offers on 38 Rintoul St Newtown. A tired, 4 Br Rental/first home. great location. About #30 % above Ratable Value of $445. Looks like those great positive cashflow properties I featured a couple of months ago are yesterdays great buys!
Median national of $346 750 in Aug just 2% under all time high.
Sales volumes 39% up on Aug 08
17 offers on 38 Rintoul St Newtown. A tired, 4 Br Rental/first home. great location. About #30 % above Ratable Value of $445. Looks like those great positive cashflow properties I featured a couple of months ago are yesterdays great buys!
Capital Gains Tax In NZ
So Its On Again...The old Capital Gains issue
Heres the issues I think:
Some see property as an obsessive addiction of NZ Investors, damaging "Productive" investment.
I suggest NZers have been right to put spare money ,& debt, into Property.
Property has tax , leverage & utility values ( You cant live in share certificates, but I guess you could burn them to keep warm!).
But its just that everywhere else in the Economy has done so poorly! Put it in the bank? 3%? And taxed? Finace companies/ Shares? Why do you think banks dont lend much on them? Business, in a country with 90% of the businesses employing less than 5 people? Exporting? When both govenments have let the NZ dollar be the kicking boy/moneymaker for global traders for 20 years? They say making money on the NZ dollar ( and damaging our brave exporters) is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. No, cant see many other places to invest in NZ. Maybe get the money offshore? Works for our richest!
No, property is the place to be.
Now Capital gain: There is already the ability to tax capital gains ( in shares too). But only as a trading activity. The worry is if you tax capital gains at acrual, where do people get the money to pay it yearly, without selling the asset!
Exempt the family home, & you get everyone investing in "The monster Family Home" like Oz
Only tax rental? Holy cow!
35% Nz houses are rentals. Say 7% State houses. total stock, $600 billion. So private rentals worth say $180 billion.
Now, are tax costs to be passed on to tenants?
Of course not! Tenants rent is dictated by supply & demand, not a landlords desires or costs. Is the tax to be offset by a decrease in tax somewhere else? I say...bloody unlikely, certainly for landlords!
So would a capital tax decrease atractiveness to the owner? Probably. So what do they do? Sell? If so to who? Someone who would accept a lower return? Are they crazy? of course not! They will need a BETTER yield! IE pay less! So value goes down.
How much? SAy 20%?
Now that is $36 BILLION, on a current value of $180 billion. Ye Gods...Imagine destroying $36 billion of NZers equity! $4 Billion lost in Finance companies looks like Chicken Feed! What would it do to the economy?
Hmmm be interesting to see where it goes.
My prediction... NOWHERE!
Heres the issues I think:
Some see property as an obsessive addiction of NZ Investors, damaging "Productive" investment.
I suggest NZers have been right to put spare money ,& debt, into Property.
Property has tax , leverage & utility values ( You cant live in share certificates, but I guess you could burn them to keep warm!).
But its just that everywhere else in the Economy has done so poorly! Put it in the bank? 3%? And taxed? Finace companies/ Shares? Why do you think banks dont lend much on them? Business, in a country with 90% of the businesses employing less than 5 people? Exporting? When both govenments have let the NZ dollar be the kicking boy/moneymaker for global traders for 20 years? They say making money on the NZ dollar ( and damaging our brave exporters) is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. No, cant see many other places to invest in NZ. Maybe get the money offshore? Works for our richest!
No, property is the place to be.
Now Capital gain: There is already the ability to tax capital gains ( in shares too). But only as a trading activity. The worry is if you tax capital gains at acrual, where do people get the money to pay it yearly, without selling the asset!
Exempt the family home, & you get everyone investing in "The monster Family Home" like Oz
Only tax rental? Holy cow!
35% Nz houses are rentals. Say 7% State houses. total stock, $600 billion. So private rentals worth say $180 billion.
Now, are tax costs to be passed on to tenants?
Of course not! Tenants rent is dictated by supply & demand, not a landlords desires or costs. Is the tax to be offset by a decrease in tax somewhere else? I say...bloody unlikely, certainly for landlords!
So would a capital tax decrease atractiveness to the owner? Probably. So what do they do? Sell? If so to who? Someone who would accept a lower return? Are they crazy? of course not! They will need a BETTER yield! IE pay less! So value goes down.
How much? SAy 20%?
Now that is $36 BILLION, on a current value of $180 billion. Ye Gods...Imagine destroying $36 billion of NZers equity! $4 Billion lost in Finance companies looks like Chicken Feed! What would it do to the economy?
Hmmm be interesting to see where it goes.
My prediction... NOWHERE!
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Awesome Section For Sale, Wellington Coast, $320 000
Heres a real Gem:I went Saw it Today
Great section on Coast . On cliffs looking to the South Island, Mana Island...I think I saw Australia!
Yet only 30 minuits from Wellington Central! $320 000 nz. A place to build a dream home.
Contact my friend Lizzy Quinn Leaders MREINZ 0274 444 667 or lizzyquinn@paradise.net.nz
It includes the concept plan. reserve to north. Up and coming seaside suburb of Titahi Bay
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Friday, September 4, 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)